TOMKINS: THERE WILL BE NO REPEAT OF 2002
Paul Tomkins 26 May 2009

Enough points to win the league on numerous occasions, the best goal difference, the top scorers, unbeaten at home and the fewest-ever defeats for a team who weren’t crowned champions.
If you can't see the positives about 2009-10 (and more are listed in the excellent 28 reasons why Reds should be proud piece on the official site), I can't imagine where you're looking.
But of course, it still reads 'runners-up' and even that high-water mark is registered for only the second time in 17 years. However, despite some people drawing the obvious conclusions, I see absolutely no reason to expect a repeat of what happened the last time Liverpool finished 2nd in the league. While the summer of 2002 should serve as a reminder to any team that annual progression isn't automatic, that doesn't mean there are any parallels between then and now. The problem wasn't so much the players signed in 2002 –– although they proved pretty disastrous –– as those who left the club. Liverpool lost Robbie Fowler, Gary McAllister, Nick Barmy, Jamie Redknapp, Christian Ziege, Jari Litmanen and Nicolas Anelka over the course, or at the end of that season, while Markus Babbel's unfortunate illness meant he'd played his last game for the Reds, having settled brilliantly in the Treble season. While some of those players were past their best, injury prone or had simply failed to shine, there still appears an impressive cachet to those names. Certain departures were inevitable, most notably that of Gary McAllister, whose time, at 37, was undeniably up. But maybe two or three of those names could have been kept on –– particularly Anelka, who, seven years on, has just finished as the league's top scorer, while the loss of Babbel was simply unfortunate. Experience was traded for youth, as Gerard Houllier swapped some of his own big-name signings for supposedly up-and-coming talent, and in the end, the younger players brought in failed to take the club to the next level. Indeed, the squad on the whole was weakened in terms of depth, from the very point when the Frenchman had appeared to be on the verge of a serious title challenge. I find it hard to fault his first four years, but nothing was the same after that summer. Put simply, too many good players left the club, and that just won't happen in 2009. Meanwhile, two of the three main signings –– Diouf and Diao –– went into the spine of the team. Seven summers later, the spine is very much in place. Not only that, the seven first-choice players have a very good average age (27.6), with only Jamie Carragher in his 30s. Everyone else is either in, or approaching, his peak. While everyone goes on about how young United's side is, their spine averages at 28.2 years of age (for the record, that's not including Giggs or Scholes). Chelsea's spine, meanwhile, averages at over 29, which in itself is not a problem right now, but suggests an overhaul will be necessary at some stage. While losing Hyypia could be compared with the exit of McAllister, the difference is that there are three brilliant centre-backs already at the club; the Finn's replacements are already bedded in. I do agree with Rafa in that it's important he has success in the transfer market this summer, simply because the task is to overtake a team at the peak of its powers; and that means perfection has to be sought in every area, to provide the best chance of doing so. Of course, if you go back over the history of transfers, even the best managers only tend to have an outright success rate of about 50 per cent; but those they do get right, they get really right. And at best, these normally work out at one top-rate player per-season. So far, Benitez has certainly done that with Torres, Alonso, Reina, Mascherano, Skrtel and Agger, with others like Kuyt, Aurelio and Benayoun adding to their reputations. If Benitez makes three signings and just one proves a roaring success, that can lift the team to new levels; another signing who succeeds, even to a lesser degree, and the squad will look a lot stronger. Some signings from last summer didn't work out as well as hoped, but at the very least they played some part in a number of victories (bar Degen, on account of injury), while Albert Riera has definitely added an important new dimension in terms of his style of play, and the width he provides. It's also important to remember that just four months ago people were writing off Yossi Benayoun, halfway through his second season; and yet since February he's played as well as anyone at Liverpool, and therefore, based on the club's imperious form in that time, as well as anyone in the country. Suddenly a squad player looks like a shoo-in, scoring goals no matter where he plays. Therefore, the improvement of a number of Reds this season shows that 'flops', 'so-so'; talents and supposed squad men can turn things around. On top of that, first-class players like Xabi Alonso and Steven Gerrard are still improving; another year on, and we could see five or six major players continuing to get better. In particular, I expect Daniel Agger, still only 25, to play a much bigger role, now that his injury problems appear to be behind him, and for Javier Mascherano to have a more consistent season; we've seen the best of him of late, but not before Christmas. As an aside regarding Mascherano, I was amazed to see one journalist on TV this weekend say, and I quote, "fantastic in that role [of holding midfielder], and basically he gets left out all the time." What next? Why doesn't Rafa play Pepe Reina more? It's worth pointing out, in reply to this baffling assertion, that Michael Carrick, vaunted by all and sundry this season, has started just one more game than Mascherano, despite United's 10 extra matches. Darren Fletcher, the United player who performs a similar role to the Argentine, also started just one more match than Masch, despite the Argentine being away for the Olympics, having some injury niggles and obviously excluded after extremely arduous trips to South America for World Cup qualifiers. Any major matches, and Mascherano is on the team sheet, providing he's not just back from from a round-the-world trip. Of course, Alex Ferguson, who has rotated more than his Liverpool counterpart this season, is a 'genius' for keeping his midfield fresh, but heaven forbid if Rafa tries the exact same approach! It's as if there must always be a stick with which to beat Rafa, to the point of inventing fictions. Anyway, with all my previous points in mind, I think there are many valid reasons to expect an even better season next time out. And while I will list further reasons, I feel it must be prefixed with the caveat that unexpected things can go wrong (particularly serious injuries), while other teams won't be standing still, either. For starters, Fernando Torres will surely play more games. Spain have a fairly busy summer, but it's nothing like last year's, which came at the end of a tough and tiring first season in English football for the striker. It wasn't just the time missed this season with injuries, but the stop-start nature, as he continually gained and then lost match sharpness. If Gerrard and Torres play more league games together, it can only bode well. It's fairly remarkable that Liverpool finished as the Barclays Premier League's top scorers given their injuries and a perceived lack of depth up front, particularly after the sale of Robbie Keane, and with potential fill-in Krisztian Nemeth injured. Next, as well as no European Championships, there's no Olympic games. I don't think it's a coincidence that the three Liverpool players (the most from any English club) who went –– Mascherano, Babel and Lucas –– struggled in the aftermath. It wasn't so much the games that they missed as not experiencing the proper preparations for an English season. Another positive is that certain players have now 'proved' themselves; earned their liverbird wings, if you will. It doesn't mean their form cannot subsequently dip, but I feel that players like Benayoun, Kuyt, Aurelio and Arbeloa won over their doubters, and perhaps more importantly, proved to themselves that they can do more than simply hold down a place in the side; they have all shone. Also, Lucas Leiva will surely benefit from a difficult first half of the season; the way he performed in the second half of the campaign, particularly from Old Trafford onwards, shows that he's a better player than many gave him credit for. It's almost a rite of passage for a youngster play himself through a really sticky patch in form; once he's done that, it adds psychological strength and builds character. A little more physical strength (which he's working on) and he can become an ever-more valuable member of the squad. Next, there's a lot of young talent on the fringes. Of course, this is true of most top clubs, but at least Liverpool have their own crop. This season saw the emergence of Emiliano Insua, who now looks very much at home in the first team. It was a shame that injuries kept Nemeth out of the picture; it's too soon to say how far he'll go in the game, but he appears to have that little something extra that marks out top talents. And as I've mentioned a few times of late, after an understandably inauspicious start David Ngog is coming along very nicely, and looking stronger in every sense. Jay Spearing will also be pushing for a place in the squad. I'm also curious to see if Daniel Pacheco makes the step-up in 2009-10. He's not the biggest, but he has bags of skill and an impressive turn of pace. If he matures in time, he could be a handy weapon in breaking down packed defences at Anfield. None of these players are anything like certainties for even a place on the bench next season, but at least the potential is there. Another important difference is that for the first time under Benítez there is no need to play a Champions League qualifier. That means two fewer games, and not being a match behind in the league from the second week onwards. Crucially, Sami Hyypia aside, I don't see any other key squad players departing. If Liverpool can add proven quality players without losing any of their own, the squad has to get stronger. That can make keeping everyone happy even tougher, but it's what Alex Ferguson has had to do, and a reason he has rotated so much. Finally, Liverpool won't have to go to Middlesbrough next season; nothing against them, but it has never been a happy hunting ground! The flip-side to that is that Newcastle tended to be an almost guaranteed six points a season, as were West Brom. So, plenty to feel genuinely optimistic about, as Liverpool look to build from a position of strength. I don't think I've ever been so disappointed at a season ending. I wish it was August already

TOMKINS: FINNISH FINALE
Paul Tomkins 20 May 2009

For years I've been saying that Sami Hyypia will play until his late 30s, maybe even beyond. Secretly I hoped that it would be with Liverpool, but few players go beyond 35 at the very best clubs.
And those who do are almost certainly no longer regulars. So it's no surprise to see him transfer his undoubted quality to another top European league.
It's fair to say that this season Sami has been fourth choice centre-back, but some fourth choice! It always amazes me in lists of the best imports to English football that the name of Sami Hyypia isn't right near the top. Indeed, some lists don't even include him. Of course, a defender is less likely to make the big headlines. But he's been a bit above the norm: a mixture of old-style British physical centre-back stature (in the mould of Ron Yeats or Larry Lloyd) with a cool, calm and collected style more in keeping with Alan Hansen. While less of a playmaker from the back than Hansen, and not a long-distance passer like Daniel Agger, Hyypia's ability on the ball marked him out as something special. Perhaps due his time in midfield in Holland, he never panicked no matter where he received the ball; one of my favourite things about his play was how he could find a pass in tight spaces, even in the opposing half. And of all the goals he's scored - and 35 is a great total for a defender who didn't also take penalties - plenty have been cool finishes placed into the corners. Lots of headers, yes, but plenty of technical finishes most centre-backs couldn't dream about, not least the one that proved the decisive goal against Juventus in the Champions League quarter-final: a sweet left-foot volley. Only a handful of imports to the British game have a right to be rated above him, based on quality and the time spent at the top of the game. It's hard to argue with the impact of Zola, Bergkamp, Henry, Cantona, Ronaldo and one or two others, while Fernando Torres has already earned his place in the pantheon, in double-quick time, but unlike Hyypia, he's not yet been around long enough to prove his longevity, which is always a factor to consider. While Liverpool have not won the league during Sami's time at Anfield, there have been numerous trophies; far more in his decade at the club than in the previous one. And Hyypia clearly played a key role in winning those trophies. While Liverpool have improved to become a much better all-round team in the last two or three years, the flurry of trophies between 2001 and 2006 owed a large debt to the defence. There was more pressure soaked up by the back four than these days, when Liverpool have much more of the ball. Winning the 2001 UEFA Cup relied on impressive rearguard actions in Rome and Barcelona, while the FA Cup final of that season saw the Reds outplayed by a rampant Arsenal; only one goal was conceded in these three games, and that tells an important story. The 2006 FA Cup success was also built on the fact that only one goal was conceded in two ties against Manchester United and Chelsea en route to the final. Of course, nothing was more impressive than the 2005 European campaign. In the Champions League that season, Sami was immense. Not just in the final, as Milan threw everything at Liverpool once the scores were back to 3-3, but in all the hard-fought knockout games. It wasn't a particularly great side, and it needed the twin peaks of Hyypia and Carragher to keep top Italian and Spanish teams at bay. Liverpool lacked the quality that the club now possesses, with the success built on tactical nous and great character. And Hyypia was faultless in both respects. Never blessed with much pace, his game was always built on intelligence, positioning, reading the play, and perfect anticipation. And he was also as brave as a lion in almost 500 games for the club. Tough as old nails, he was also fair: not one booking during 87 matches in a row from January 2000 to October 2001, which is almost unheard of for a man in his position. Throughout the 1990s I used to enjoy 'collecting' debuts: I was at Craven Cottage when Robbie Fowler made his bow, Selhurst Park when Michael Owen came off the bench to score in his first taste of senior action, and at Anfield for Steven Gerrard's inaugural appearance as a late sub against Blackburn. I was also fortunate enough to see Sami Hyypia's full debut at Sheffield Wednesday, and his home debut against Watford. The rumblings about Fowler, Owen and Gerrard had been around for a while before each broke into the first team, but Sami Hyypia was a totally unknown quantity to most Reds. Few signings have left fans as puzzled: Sami who? My first impression in those home and away debuts was of someone totally commanding, rising and heading the ball about 50 yards up the pitch. For much of the '90s, Liverpool's defending had bordered on the comical. That was wiped away almost instantly upon the arrival of Hyppia and his initial partner, Stephane Henchoz. That partnership was good, but the one between the Finn and Jamie Carragher was better still. So just where does Sami rank in the all-time greats? In this age where the word 'legend' gets horribly over-used, does he truly deserve such an accolade? For my most recent book, 'Dynasty', I asked several leading LFC writers, journalists and high-profile long-standing fans – knowledgeable and in many case old enough to have seen the great teams of the 1960s to rate every player to represent the club since the day Bill Shankly walked through the door in 1959. Based on the averages, Sami Hyypia came 10th out of all signings, and 14th when including home-grown players. As well as rating the quality of each individual, I wanted to get an idea of the value for money each player represented in terms of transfer fee. At just £2.6m in 1999 (approximately £5m in today's market), he was again ranked 10th, when taking into account fee, number of games played and also the 'quality' rating. In these terms he clearly ranks as Liverpool's best overseas player. Of course, these ratings were collected last summer. While the majority of those top 14 players have retired or left the club, Hyypia has seen out another year; what we now know to be his last. While Sami has taught us nothing new this season, and has only featured in 18 games, his continued excellence has, if anything, only added to his legend. It's been another year of near-faultless consistency, in a fairly impressive 15 league appearances, with 12 starts; enough to win a league medal, but alas, it was a case of close but no cigar. The highlight for me in his swan-song year was how he came into the side at Old Trafford at the very last minute, when his experience helped towards an amazing 4-1 victory. It's not that he's slowing down, more that at 25, both Agger and Skrtel represent the long-term future of the club. After all, they are the same age as Hyypia when he arrived. There's still little to choose between the three, but of course, Hyypia himself has admitted that he finds it physically harder to play back-to-back games. At 35, Sami is not going to get any better, but the other two are still fairly young in a position where, injuries withstanding, the late 20s and early 30s are definitely the peak years. A manager doesn't pick his team to keep players happy, but the time had come to tie Agger to a long-term deal, and the big Finn had to look elsewhere for regular football and a two-year deal. I don't think even he'd begrudge that, and passes on the baton to two top up-and-coming players, to whom his valuable experience has also been handed. Sami leaving will hopefully be the only weakening of the entire squad this summer. In footballing terms, with his appearances diminishing, the blow is not as hard as it would once have been. But in terms of his presence around the club, a massive gap will now exist.

TOMKINS ENTERS THE TWILIGHT ZONE
Paul Tomkins 12 May 2009

The weirdness continues. It happened again at Upton Park: inexplicably, Liverpool once again entered the twilight zone, and the opposition disappeared into the Bermuda Triangle.
For some reason, teams in great form wilt and crumble when facing Liverpool. No matter how well they're playing in previous weeks, they roll over and give up the points. Clearly it has nothing to do with the Reds being a top side who quash the life out of a side before (or whilst) imposing their own attacking will; it's just yet another collective off-day for the team they're playing. It dates back to the Real Madrid game. Madrid were in superb form – and then Liverpool won at the Bernabeu, before thrashing them at Anfield. Suddenly the double Spanish champions were hailed as the worst Madrid side in eons, and were labelled rubbish in both games. Then came Sunderland, who in fairness were on a bit of a roll coming to Anfield. But they were seen off with little concern, as the visitors' good run came to an end. Limp Sunderland, etc... Next, Manchester United were experiencing their best run of home form for donkey's years, with 12 straight wins at Old Trafford and 11 straight league victories, yet were beaten 4-1. Funnily enough, it was they who, for no good reason, just didn't play well, in the one game where no motivation was necessary and where confidence wasn't an issue. Of course, it had nothing to do with them not being allowed to play well. Admittedly Aston Villa, still flying high in the league, were on a bit of a decline when coming to Anfield, although, naturally, they were only beaten 5-0 because of their own deficiencies. Next, Fulham were in the best form of their Premiership lives, and had just put United to the sword at Craven Cottage, but for some reason they just didn't play as well as they could when Rafa Benítez's side visited. Weird. In fairness, Chelsea were brilliant when visiting Anfield in the Champions League. They got due credit, too. It's fair to say that Liverpool didn't have a great second-half, but Andy Gray, no less, remarked that both sides had been excellent in the first half. So it's not that Liverpool were rubbish, as seems to be the case with the opposition every time the Reds get a good result. It was Guus Hiddink's brilliance, ably backed by his side. In the return, much was made of how awful Chelsea were, particularly in the first half. Liverpool did receive a little credit, but yet again, the main emphasis was on Chelsea letting themselves down rather than the Reds' attacking verve. Liverpool got some kudos for guts, but not their fair dues for quality. In the league, Arsenal had been in sensational form upon making the trip to Merseyside. But for some reason, Liverpool's sublime attacking football was given little credit following a thrilling (if galling) 4-4 draw, the least-just result of the season. Talk about floodlight robbery. It's fair to say that neither Blackburn nor Newcastle were in great shape when coming to Anfield, and but for the crossbar Liverpool could have racked up double figures in these two fixtures. Of course, as Liverpool confirmed themselves as the league's top scorers, the poor play of the opposition was the main story. (Oh, and some nonsense about semaphore.) If Sam Allardyce's sides are anything, they are dogged. Detractors find his football rudimentary, but his sides rarely crumble. Except that's what they did. Ah, because they had no fit strikers? Maybe, although Benni Mcarthy, left on the bench, is by far and away their top scorer this season. No-one asked them to play a centre-back up front, after all. It's like Rafa leaving out Jamie Carragher and playing Torres at centre-back due to an injury crisis. And then most recently, West Ham. There had been nothing but praise for Gianfranco Zola's side of late, who have a very good recent home record, beyond hard-fought 1-0 defeats to Manchester United and Chelsea. Coincidentally for Benítez and his side, once again, the opposition just didn't get into their stride. (And despite being no relation, it was weird for me watching Tomkins trying to stop Torres.) I feel compelled to point out that if certain other teams were the top league scorers, we'd never hear the last about their attacking talents. Part of me actually likes it when Liverpool go under the radar; it can be advantageous having the world against you, or ignoring your strengths. But another part of me finds the inequality irritating, and feels that credit should go only where it's due. Liverpool's only two top-class attacking players (according to sundry short-sighted pundits) have started just one-third of all 2008-09 league games in the same side, and yet the Reds have scored the most goals. And apparently Liverpool are 'cautious', with two 'holding' midfielders. Something's not right with this picture, is it? No change of formation has occurred in recent months, but as I argued earlier in the season, this is an excellent attacking side, and far from negative in its approach. If the stats didn't back me up at the time (often due to lax finishing), the figures now do. Similarly, at the time Robbie Keane was sold, I argued that it was the right decision. Plenty disagreed, but it seems to have proved the case. His place on the bench was becoming distracting (quite literally at times: the TV director for the Newcastle away game spent more time showing him than the action), and it was a chance to get in a good fee (and save on wages) in order to reinvest this summer. This was my gut instinct. When Liverpool's goals dried up later in the winter, I admit to wobbling a little. But yet again, my first instincts were right. And I also never lost sight of the fact that Keane hadn't been pulling up trees before he was sold; it's not like he'd banged in 15 or so. And he's also only scored three since returning to Spurs, and with time not on his side (he's 30 this summer), I felt it was a good time to cut the losses, for a very good player who wasn't fitting in (as happens now and again). However, my fear was less about selling Keane, and more that no replacement was sought. I never doubted the potential of David Ngog, who had been excelling at international youth level for a top nation, but feared that it would be next season before he found his feet in the fast-paced Premiership. Thankfully, despite only playing a few minutes here and there, he appeared to find that vital strength needed to survive as a striker in England almost as soon as I'd claimed this season looked too soon for him. And his record of minutes-per-goal (187) is now far better than Keane's was (at 255), and only marginally behind those of Torres (165) and Gerrard (145). In my defence, in the same blog, written at the end of January, I also touted Yossi Benayoun as someone who could do as well as Keane in the role behind the main striker; in truth, he's done even better, albeit often from a wide starting point, but with licence to roam into similar areas. So despite a little uneasiness on my part (there was of course some risk involved in selling Keane), I feel that my optimism in January was not misplaced. The goals scored recently, even in the absence of Torres and/or Gerrard, show that the ability was in the squad all along. If anything, I feel pleasantly surprised at seeing the Reds as the Premiership's top scorers, not to mention having thumped four past Madrid, Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United in the main competitions. I didn't see that coming. And this all came after Keane left. Then there's Krisztian Nemeth, whose quality I've never doubted since I first saw him play for the reserves, but for whom injuries have ruined this season; he's another option that didn't pan out this spring in Keane's absence – particularly after a brief loan spell at Blackpool, designed to get him match-sharp, ended with a broken cheekbone sustained within a minute of his debut. That's just plain bad luck. But players like Ngog and Nemeth can only improve, as can Daniel Pacheco, so it's not like Liverpool are peaking this season; indeed, it's still a very young first-team squad, with an average age about to be further lowered with the exit of the evergreen Sami Hyypia (more on the great Finn next week). Otherwise I'd expect all of the main players to still be around, and benefiting from one more year spent together. Take into account the handicap of injuries to Torres, Gerrard and, when it came to winning more games at Anfield, Daniel Agger, and there's every reason to think that a fit squad next season (fingers crossed) will be significantly superior to this. And that's before any additions. Despite lower resources, Liverpool need to try and match that little extra depth that United possess; after all, that's what will see them crowned champions, if they get four points from their next three games. They've certainly not played better football than Liverpool this season (and it's been well over a decade since I've been able to say that), but eeked out the extra point here and there, often with 1-0 wins.
May finaleRemarkably, under Rafa Benítez, a Liverpool season has never 'finished' before May (with the narrowest of exceptions last year). I don't mean the desperate charge to finish in the Champions League positions, but genuinely contesting trophies until the final month of the campaign. May 2005 saw the Reds win the Champions League. May 2006 saw Liverpool win the FA Cup. May 2007 saw a better performance in the Champions League Final in a rematch with Milan, but a worse result (c’est la vie). And last year the Reds were still in the Champions League until just a few minutes before the start of May, when getting the game back to 3-2 at Stamford Bridge in extra-time left them one away goal from yet another final. (And to shamelessly sneak it in, technically it was May 1st in some parts of the world.) The cup success of the previous four seasons has diminished, only to be replaced with a serious title challenge: one that is still just about alive and kicking as we head towards mid-May. However, to my mind, Liverpool were always unlikely to win their first league title in almost two decades while simultaneously excelling in Europe; if the 'first' title is universally regarded as the hardest to win, additional tough games in the run-in could hinder that, even if progress is naturally sought in all competitions. With the title theirs to wrap up this week, United fans will rightly take heart if they win the league without playing their best football. It's a nice luxury. But Liverpool will have pushed them down to the wire without the manager being able to field anything like his best side for two-thirds of all league games (and that's ignoring other key absences in the 12 games that Torres and Gerrard were fit to start together). Maybe that's an even better sign. It also seems that there are some itchy feet at United, with Ronaldo and Tevez linked with exits. It would be dangerous to assume that losing top attacking talent will see them falter; when Liverpool lost Kevin Keegan and Ian Rush, the team actually improved with reinforcements. But there's always a risk of it not quite working out, or taking time to gel. By contrast, at Liverpool there seems to be a hunger to stick together and keep improving. With Arsenal at times brilliant but brittle as balsa, and ageing Chelsea on the verge of serious transition (new manager and culling of some 30-somethings seem inevitable), this could be just the start of Liverpool's quest to knock United off their perch. The race to #19 could be the big one.