PAUL TOMKINS: IF ONLY...
Paul Tomkins 14 April 2009

As football fans, we always think 'if only' this, or that, had happened.
In our minds at least, every result in history can be turned on its head by going back to one defined point in the match and altering what occurred. Over the years there have been some pretty big moments like that. Even last week, I ended up lamenting that Jose Boswinga wasn't fit for Chelsea, because his stand-in scored two goals. Of course, at the start of the game, that seemed like a stroke of good fortune for Liverpool. There's the 'if only' a player did something different, although I do hate it when commentators say 'if he'd done this, he'd definitely have scored'. Going back to Fulham, Andrea Dossena 'only had to keep his header down' to 'definitely' put Liverpool 1-0 ahead as he powered Gerrard's cross against the bar. I remarked at the time that there was the small matter of the keeper, and this weekend Kuyt kept his header down, from an almost identical situation, and Paul Robinson stretched out a hand to save it. Aim for the corners, and you increase your chances of scoring if you connect right, but also your chances of putting it wide. So nothing is ever that simple. It doesn't hurt to think about different things might have been, but nothing is ever certain. For example, if Steven Gerrard had been wearing Peter Crouch's boots away at Stoke, his late, full-stretch prodded effort may have gone in instead of hitting the post. Then there'd have been none of this overblown talk of mind-games affecting Liverpool. But had the Reds beaten Stoke, and avoided the subsequent poor run in form, that blip may be striking now, at a point where Liverpool are instead looking sublime in the league. Sometimes you go on a great run and it breeds confidence, but then it might lead to overconfidence; also, the end of a good run can sometimes hit harder. Any time a sense of invincibility is breached, it can have exaggerated consequences. Of course, with the Butterfly Effect, changing one thing in a match instantly changes everything else, just as changing one results alters subsequent performances, for better or worse. Unless it's the very last kick of a game, or the last game of a season, there's always time for something to yet again alter the outcome. At half-time in Istanbul, there wouldn't have been a Liverpool fan in the world who wouldn't have wiped the scoreboard clean if given the chance. Indeed, most would have settled for two Milan goals being chalked off and a full-time 1-0 defeat were it offered. I know my fear as I sat dazed at the Ataturk was one of total humiliation in the impending 45 minutes; winning the game was not a realistic option. And yet, had it been 0-0 at half-time, there's a very good chance Milan would have gone on to win. The chances of them losing from 3-0 were negligible. But to be the best moment in many Liverpool fans' footballing lives, it needed to be mission (virtually) impossible. And maybe it needed Milan to think that they had already won, too. Then there's the ability to freeze a match - with an omnipotent remote control - at any given point, and, without knowing what will happen next, have your player do something else. When I saw Vladimir Smicer lining up to shoot with the Reds back in the match at 3-1, I'd have paused the action, and had him do something far more sensible. Calm down, Vladi! You'll never score from there... I think I'd have said the same to Xabi Alonso on a few occasions, too, when shooting from his own half. I mean, what was he thinking? I can also run through a range of great 'nearly' goals, that were almost scored over the decades. What if Bernard Diomede's spectacular overhead kick on his debut against Sunderland, which crossed the line, had not been incorrectly ruled out? Would he then not have disappeared without trace? Or what if Ian Rush had stormed out of the club when, as a kid in Bob Paisley's office, he threatened to do so when the canny manager tried to stoke him up? What if Graeme Souness had said 'Yes' when approached about Eric Cantona in 1992? What if Bill Shankly's resignation hadn't been accepted in 1974? What if Bob Paisley's resignation, soon after, had been accepted? Perhaps we wouldn't now be talking about a 19-year wait for the league title now had Everton's Tony Cottee been marked tighter on February 1991, in an FA Cup tie that ended 4-4. Maybe a change that the Liverpool manager wanted to make late on in that game would have seen the Reds progress, and momentum grow. Kenny Dalglish was already questioning himself over losing his ability to make crucial decisions; a hesitancy that was crystallised for him when, with the Reds leading 4-3, he wanted to shift Jan Molby back to sweeper, but instead deferred to his assistant, Ronnie Moran, and kept things as they were. Cottee equalised again, and the next day Dalglish quit. There's no way to say for sure that the Reds would have gone on to win the league, but they were in pole position at the time of that morale-sapping draw - a game in which the Reds had led no fewer than four times. And Dalglish certainly needed a break for the good of his health, that much was clear. But perhaps it could have been staved off until the summer. All of these, and a million and one other moments in time, would have altered the destiny of games, of seasons, and of careers. But if I could change one thing, it would be an FA Cup encounter away at lowly Carlisle United - at the time languishing in the old Fourth Division. Liverpool won 3-0, but if I turn back time, I would make Liverpool have a terrible game, and crash out. 'Disaster', the headlines would have read. Instead, the club appeared to be marching towards another double under Kenny Dalglish. No-one could have imagined that the victory would be the first link in a chain stretching to the 15th of April later that year. That game, and subsequent wins against Millwall, Hull City and Brentford, were setting the Reds on a collision course with Hillsborough. We now know where that January victory led, but at the time it was just another result. If only any of these games had ended in defeat... In the players doing their jobs so well, a massive event was created - an FA Cup semi-final - to be held at a stadium known for its dangerous bottleneck leading to the Leppings Lane turnstiles, and where problems had occurred in the past. In terms of subsequent safety at football matches, a lot of good came from Hillsborough; almost certainly saving other lives in the future. It's just so sickening that it took 96 lives to act as a wake-up call, and little solace to those who lost loved ones. Maybe it's fanciful, but I'd like to think that if Liverpool never even made it to that fateful semi-final, not only would that distressing occasion never have existed, but football safety would have been addressed regardless. Instead, Liverpool overcame Carlisle, and before too long we were left with the heartbreak of a real disaster.