TOMKINS: WIN TOGETHER, LOSE TOGETHER Paul Tomkins 19 October 2009
	Earlier in the week I'd promised to take my son to see the new Disney Pixar film, 'Up', on Saturday evening.
Shortly after getting seated, any hopes I harboured that my mind would be taken off the defeat at Sunderland were swept away; typical, then, that this particular film should be based on the amazing powers of inflatable spheres. There are definitely grounds for concern with four defeats in nine league games. But I thought Rafa Benítez's post-match comments were very honest, and unlike the ploy of some managers, not at all diversionary. The league is very open this year, and no side is without its problems. But clearly Rafa was disappointed with the performance, and didn't hide from that fact, even though the winning (and game-changing) goal was both a fluke and against the laws of the game. I write this piece with the disappointment of this performance as a given. I am not glossing over that disappointment. Liverpool need to play better in the next two games (and, I feel, almost certainly will play better.) But this is not the time or place to throw in the towel. A win next weekend, in another tough game, will alter both the chances of the league title and everyone's mood. Liverpool's woes have been slightly exaggerated by the nature of the fixture list; it's been an incredibly tough start away from home. The Reds have already gone to three of the current top seven (as I write). So that skews things. However, that's the way football works; sometimes you get a good fixture list, other times it's more demanding. This was always a pig of a fixture, even before the freak goal gave the home side the boost to end all boosts. Any side going away from home to face buoyant opposition needs a good start to quieten the noisy crowd; that certainly wasn't the case here. It's hard to say how much that changed the game, but the beach ball certainly didn't help an under-strength Liverpool settle into proceedings. Benítez had just seen his players jetting all over the world, and in the case of two attacking players, for a friendly in Australia of all places (I mean, come on!). It's a bit catch-22 when you buy such quality, as you know they can potentially struggle after international break, especially those who have to travel outside of Europe, like the South Americans. Also, Liverpool's two best players came back crocked after representing their respective countries, and if that isn't a leveller, I don't know what is. Sunderland have gone down another route: quite an expensive team, but mostly with not-quite-internationals; a collection of strong Premiership players rather than outstanding ones, and a dogged attitude. So they were always going to be ten times fresher. On occasions like this, Liverpool's disruption suited their host's fast-pressing game, where freshness was always going to be a factor. Benítez, who was facing the manager who has caused him more problems in the league than any other, had to weigh up whether it was better to go with a stronger but more jet-lagged side, or hope to get more from some squad players. Either way there was an element of a gamble, and neither way is ever ideal. It didn't work out, but then Sunderland should have had all three points away at Man United last time out, after a quite brilliant display. So anyone who thought this was an easy fixture is living in dreamland, even before the international break was taken into consideration. The problem with playing tired players is that it then carries over into the next game; and then the game after, especially when in a run of unenviable fixtures. This is a horrible week in that sense: a manager will want to start with a win to take into each successive game, but he knows something will give. In the book "Why England Lose", Simon Kuper notes what the head of AC Milan's 'Milan Lab', which is 'probably the most sophisticated medical outfit in football', says about playing 50 tough games a year: "The performance is not optimal. The risk of injury is very high. We can say the risk of injury after one game, after one week's training, is 10%. If you play after two days, the risk rises by 30 or 40%. If you are playing four or five games consecutively without the right recovery, the risk of injury is incredible. The probability of having one lesser performance is very high." And of course, this does not take into account the additional strain of long distance travel, or the emotional drain of, for example, captaining your country in two must-win World Cup qualifiers amid a backdrop of feverish hysteria. So picking a Liverpool side this weekend must have been an incredibly difficult process. There are further extenuating circumstances (rather than excuses). Only last week I said that the Reds weren't having any luck with referees this season. This latest technically incorrect decision is yet another example of the officials getting it wrong to the probable cost of Liverpool points. I'm not sure I can remember a run of fixtures when there hasn't at least been a hint of decisions evening up. The Reds, playing exactly the same way, could easily have five extra points now just from poor judgement calls or a failure to implement the correct rules. Plenty of other big teams have played as poorly this season as Liverpool did at Sunderland or Spurs, but got fortuitous own goals or generous refereeing decisions; when, rather than make their own luck, they've been handed it. I agree that if can often go both ways, but this season that hasn't happened. I accept that it always seems slightly pathetic to talk about the officials, as if you have to accept whatever comes your way. The same applies when blaming the fixture list, or injuries. These are all real factors that affect the result on any given week, and then affect the confidence going into the next game. Some managers heap intolerable pressure onto officials, and that's not the Benítez way. Given the situation going into a very tricky fixture, and the worst of luck in the 4th minute, this is when football management seems a thankless task. For instance, while Liverpool have proven time and again in the recent past (just last season!) that they can win without Gerrard and Torres, it stands to reason that the team will be more likely to do so with them present. It also means that those playing in their place, who are the next-strongest players, will not be on the bench to come on and change things. So that lessens a manager's options, no matter how strong his squad. Of course, Liverpool no longer possess Alonso, nor (quite yet) his ‘replacement', Alberto Aquilani. So that's one further potential match-winner absent. Gerrard, Torres and Aquilani may well be the main attacking unit for the rest of the season. I fully respect Rafa's decision to buy a player he believes in for the long-term, rather than compromise by getting someone less gifted who would be ready for August. I don't think anyone expected at least four games to have been lost before the Italian even makes his bow. Also, Liverpool haven't had quite the Jamie Carragher of old; the defender has been very candid in admitting he's not been at his best this season. However, if anyone has done enough to deserve a bit of slack being cut, it's Carra. It's almost automatic to write off anyone over the age of 30 if their form dips, but if you can read the game (and he can!) then you can play centre-half until your mid-30s, if not beyond. And you can't buy the kind of leadership and kinship with the club that he offers. But as a team, and as an individual, whether you play brilliantly or indifferently, you usually need a bit of luck at the right time. You probably make your own luck more often when your play merits it, and there's a case for saying that the Reds haven't deserved it on occasions this season. But equally, they haven't deserved the really bad breaks, and the lack of any fortunate ones. It's only part of the story, of course, but it's an important part, all the same. In the first nine games last season, the Reds, while far from lucky (disallowed goal against Stoke?) had better fortune, and it helped build the foundations of a title challenge, even though the form was equally patchy. The truth is that a few wins will quickly change the complexion of the table. If people don't believe those wins will come, that's up to them; just as people have the right to believe that they can. And it's almost certain that the biggest clubs will drop a greater number points against the next tier of teams, as seen with Aston Villa already scalping Liverpool and Chelsea, and with Sunderland taking points off the Reds and Man United. Spurs are also more of a threat, and of course, Manchester City now have the costliest squad in the country, and have already hammered Arsenal 4-1. Ultimately, the amount of defeats a team suffers will never be the defining factor; points on the board will decide everyone's fate, once each side has faced one another home and away. Never before in 120 years of league football history had a team lost just two games and not won the league. Rarely, if ever, can the team that won the league have lost twice as many games as the team that finished runners-up. Records are broken all the time. By pulling together, the Reds can break another. It's only a few months since the Reds racked up their best points tally in 20 years. Without any draws to date, there's still a chance that Liverpool could lose three times as many games as in 2008/09 and still end up even closer to the title.